New Right-Wing Contender Emerges: Conservatives on High Alert
Nigel Farage has declared that he plans to run as a candidate, crushing Tory hopes as two more major polls suggest the party is facing a wipeout. New Right-Wing Contender Emerges: Conservatives on High Alert
Nigel Farage has electrified the general election campaign, taking over as leader of Reform UK and launching a bid to become an MP.
As first revealed by The Independent, Mr. Farage will run in Tory-held Clacton in Essex in what is already being described as “an existential risk” for the Tories.
The decision comes as a major blow to Rishi Sunak’s electoral hopes, as the former Ukip leader, who has said he would not run to be an MP, confirmed he had changed his mind and decided to contest the general election.
Mr. Farage splitting the vote on the right
Within hours of the revelation, Tory MPs and candidates were being asked to attend a briefing on an “immigration lock” pledge, which means a Conservative government would set a legal limit on annual immigration figures. The move was being seen as a bid to stop Reform UK, with Mr. Farage splitting the vote on the right.
Mr. Farage’s announcement came on a day when two major polls suggested that the Tories were already heading for a historically bad defeat. A YouGov MRP poll of 12,000 people predicted Labour would have its biggest ever majority of 194, with the Tories marooned on 140 seats.
Earlier, a Redfield and Wilton poll of 10,000 voters put Labour 26 points ahead of the Conservatives by just 20 percent, suggesting the party could be down to a mere 24 seats. This followed an MRP poll at the weekend suggesting the Tories could be down to 66 seats.
The candidate made the outlook even worse for the Tories
However, leading pollsters said the news of Mr Farage’s standing as a candidate made the outlook even worse for the Tories.
Polling mentor Professor Sir John Curtice described the intervention as “important.”.
Lord Hayward, a Tory peer and top pollster, told The Independent that Mr. Farage’s original decision not to stand meant Reform’s vote would be much lower than is reflected in the polls and “had been the most damaging thing for any single party.”.
Luke Tryl from More in Common pollsters tweeted: “Given that our MRP [projection] was prior to Nigel Farage saying he was taking over as leader [of] Reform UK and had the Tories losing 185 seats and holding another 50 by less than 4 percent, I think it is fair to say his decision poses an existential risk to the Tory party.”
Mr. Farage became the leader of Reform UK once again. He pledged to serve a term of five years in opposition alongside the Conservatives. Former leader Richard Tice will become party chairman.
Explaining his bid to become an MP
Explaining his bid to become an MP, as first revealed exclusively by The Independent on Monday lunchtime, Mr. Farage said he could not let down “millions of people” who had supported his past political projects.
At what he dubbed an emergency press conference, he added, “Something is happening out there.”
A rejection of the political class is occurring in this country. This rejection is unprecedented in modern times.
A Conservative Party spokesman issued a warning: Nigel Farage’s actions might provide an opportunity for Keir Starmer to rejoin the EU. – This might lead to the imposition of a retirement tax on pensioners. – There is a possibility that taxes could increase for hardworking Brits throughout the UK.
A vote on reform would benefit Labour
Farage acknowledged that Reform was unlikely to secure any seats. However, he appears unconcerned that a vote for reform would benefit Labor. His actions align with Keir Starmer’s desires.
Yesterday, EU insiders expressed their expectation that Starmer would pursue a softer Brexit deal. This could potentially pave the way for the UK to rejoin the EU. That would mean uncontrolled immigration and betraying the will of the British people. Is Farage really willing to risk undoing his life’s work by handing Starmer a blank check to rejoin the EU?”
Mr Farage is taking a risk because he has never won a parliamentary seat in seven previous attempts. He has, though, won European Parliament national elections as leader of Ukip and the Brexit Party (now Reform UK).
On Monday, he said he had only stood once “in earnest,” a time when he said the Conservatives cheated. In the past, we acted as a pressure group. Our goal was to raise awareness that leaving the EU made sense. At the time, no one else in parliament was advocating for this viewpoint.
Labour has already won the election
He also declared that Labour has already won the election and there is no contest between Mr Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer, saying that Reform believes the current general election campaign is “the dullest, most boring election we have ever seen”. “We think this election needs a bit of gingering up,” he added.
Mr. Farage outlined Reform’s long-term goals: becoming the opposition in the next parliament. He also aims for Reform to be the largest party at the general election in NUM. That is the ambition, as simple as that.
Further, he said the party would surprise everybody, getting far more votes than the 3.9 million won by Ukip in 2015.
He added: “When people start to realise in the red wall, with Reform second to Labour, when they start to realise that in those seats, it’s a Conservative vote that’s a vote for Labour, it’s a Conservative vote that is a wasted vote, then I think we might just surprise everybody.”
“We are appealing to Conservative voters; we are appealing to Labour voters.”
“The Conservative Party shows some similarities to Nigel Farage’s Reform Party.
In response to the announcement, Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper made this statement: “The Conservative Party shows some similarities to Nigel Farage’s Reform Party.
“Rishi Sunak’s constant pandering to reform has horrified former lifelong Conservative voters at the center.
Sunak must rule out Farage joining the Conservative Party in the future. If Farage gets elected as an MP, Sunak must still maintain this stance.
Before Mr. Farage’s declaration, the YouGov MRP poll gave the Tories the most optimistic outcome. However, this still meant they were facing the worst defeat in their 100-year history.
It suggested that Labour would have a significant number of seats, more than the Tories.
If the results go against them, big names like Chancellor Jeremy Hunt may lose their seats. Similarly, Penny Mordaunt, as Leader of the House, and Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg could also face the same outcome.
But other polls suggested that the result could be even worse—even before Mr. Farage decided to stand. The Redfield and Wilton poll of 10,000 voters put Labour 26 points of the Torie, 46 per cent to 20 per cent. This could leave the Conservatives with a mere 24 seats and director of research Philip van Scheltinga confidently predicted they will get “less than 100 seats”.
Boris Johnson’s fall: Techne UK has predicted fewer than 100 seats for the Tories.
Techne chief executive Michaela Morizzo suggested that the Tuesday night leaders’ debate could be significant. The debate between Mr. Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer on Tuesday night, according to Michaela Morizzo, could be significant. She expressed that it might be a last chance for Prime Minister Sunak in the debate.
She said: “In this particular case, I believe that the debate will be useful to consolidate the opinion of those who have already formed their own opinion and have clear ideas about who to vote for. Certainly, even some undecided electors may have clearer ideas after the debate, especially the less informed, but whether this can close the gap is difficult to say now, but above all, difficult to achieve.”
Lord Hayward noted: “There are many undecided voters out there, particularly 2019 Tory voters. The prime minister’s best hope is to try to appeal to them. This means that, unusually, this debate may offer him a chance.
Sir John Curtice warned that TV debates are unlikely to change things. However, there was a major shift during “Cleggmania.” Former Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg took the first 2010 debate by storm.
He said: “It’s a chance [for Sunak] but no more.” The two head-to-head elections in 2019 were followed only by marginal shifts in the polls, slightly to Labour’s advantage. Nothing has ever replicated the impact of the first [three-way] debate in 2010.”
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