As the first results from the May 2024 local elections come in, Keir Starmer has told the prime minister to make way for a general election.

It comes as Rishi Sunak faces a brutal series of losses set to further dampen the party’s prospects in the face of a looming general election.

Polling doyen, Professor Sir John Curtice said the election “could be one of the worst, if not the worst” Conservative performances in local government elections of the last 40 years”, while Conservative MPs have reluctantly conceded the results from the council elections are poor for the party.

As we await the results of key mayoral contests and the remaining councils, The Independent asks what the initial results mean for the general election, expected later this year.

The prime minister has long claimed that his “working assumption” is that the country will take to the polls for a general election in the second half of the year, with many commentators suggesting it is most likely to be in the autumn.

But Westminster whispers suggest that a dire set of local election results could hasten a general election as rebel Conservative MPs move to depose Mr. Sunak.

Sir John suggested that the Conservatives could be on track to lose over 500 seats, which would exceed the worst-case expectations offered up by CCHQ.

As of yet, there have been minimal calls for Mr. Sunak to go, as even his arch-critics have suggested a leadership coup is unlikely.

But the big test will be the mayoral results, which will not come in until the weekend.

The Tory mayors in the West Midlands and Teesside reportedly face uncertain tenures due to the close contest between Labour and the Conservatives. The loss of either or both seats would mean the overturning of huge majorities and could trigger substantial anger within the Tory party.

The London mayoral election is shaping up to be a closer contest than anticipated, with Sadiq Khan, the incumbent Labour mayor, facing stiff competition.

If Tory candidate Susan Hall were to achieve a relatively high proportion of the voteshare, this could placate Tory insurgents, even if there were huge losses in other areas. Tory strategists suggest even a narrowing of the polls in London could assuage Tory nerves, with the capital offering a helpful blueprint for returning some lost support.

With the days remaining until the full impact of the results is felt, discontented Conservatives have an extended period to consider the benefits and drawbacks of urging Mr. Sunak to step down prematurely.

Pollsters have already confirmed that the local council results have verified the series of disastrous poll ratings that the Conservatives have been experiencing.

The most recent YouGov poll gave the Labour party a 26-point lead on the Tories, which, if repeated at a general election, would give the party just 36 seats, according to the prediction site Electoral Calculus.

Professor Curtice said: “I think we have to conclude that the message of the polls of the last 12 months—which is that the Conservative Party under Rishi Sunak has not been making significant progress in narrowing the gap on Labour—is that it has not been making that progress, and these local results so far fully confirm what those polls have been saying”.

The results are therefore unlikely to inspire the party with much hope for an electoral rebound. It looks almost certain that Labour will take the keys to No. 10; the big question is how sizeable the defeat will be.

Sir Keir said Labour’s win in the contest to replace ousted Tory MP Scott Benton was “truly historic” and the “most important result” nationally as the party achieved yet another 20-point swing in a by-election.

Blackpool is significant as a key northern battleground which turned blue in 2019, having fought the Tories off by a slim margin in previous general elections.Today, the swing in today’s town demonstrates a significant drop-off in support for the governing party. This decline can be explained by a number of factors, including the town’s inability to level up, the cost of living crisis, and the controversy surrounding Tory sleaze.

As these are all issues that will characterise general election campaign, the party’s victory will please Labour strategists.

In the recent local council elections, Labour has seen victories in traditionally Conservative strongholds like Rushmoor and Thurrock. In response to gaining Thurrock council, a Labour spokesperson saying: “This is exactly the kind of place we need to be winning to gain a majority in a general election.”

Should Labour continue to replicate these kind of successes as the local elections continue to unfold, the party will feel comfortably on track to overturn blue constituencies at the general election and achieve a comfortable majority.

In local elections, it is common for challengers and fringe parties to make substantial gains. People tend to focus on localized issues when voting rather than considering who they want in No. 10.

The party lost control of Oldham Council on Thursday night. Independent candidates gained five seats, including those who openly supported Palestine. As a result, the council is now under no overall control.

Pat McFadden, Labour’s national campaign coordinator, acknowledged that the crisis in Gaza had been a factor in some places. Many innocent individuals were reportedly being slain by him. It was not surprising, given this, that people had strong feelings about the situation.

As a result, Labour will closely monitor their vote share in areas with significant Muslim populations. They will closely monitor their vote share in areas with large student populations. In order to avoid losing support, they will also keep a close eye on these traditionally reliable voter groups.

On the right, Reform won 16 seats, defeating the Tories in these areas. This outcome is likely to cause frustration among Tory factions advocating for a rightward shift in the prime minister’s policies.

Reform MP Lee Anderson was confident his party would win seats at a general election. However, they performed slightly worse than hoped in the Blackpool by-election. The Reform Party took third place in the Blackpool by-election.

The vote share was narrow between the Tories and the right-wing challenger party, with only 117 votes separating them. However, Reform’s chances of taking an entire constituency were dampened. This is because the party is still underperforming when compared to Ukip in previous parliaments.