Humza Yousaf Path to Success or Failure

Scotland’s First Minister, Humza Yousaf, is battling to save his job as he faces a knife-edge no-confidence vote. Humza Yousaf Path to Success or Failure

The SNP leader triggered a crisis at Holyrood after he dramatically brought a power-sharing deal with the Scottish Greens to an end.

The backlash has plunged Mr Yousaf’s future into doubt, although party colleagues insist he will not resign.

How did we get here?

The Bute House Agreement, signed back in 2021 and named after the first minister’s official residence in Edinburgh, brought the Green Party into government for the first time anywhere in the UK.

It gave the SNP a majority at Holyrood when the votes of its MSPs were combined with those of the seven Green members, and it also made Green co-leaders Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater junior ministers.

Without it, the SNP would need to have operated as a minority administrator at Holyrood.

What caused the relationship to turn sour?

There had been mounting tensions between the largest party at Holyrood and their junior partners in government.

The Greens were irked by the SNP-controlled administration’s decision to scrap a crucial climate change objective.

That, combined with the decision to pause the prescription of new puberty blockers to under-18s at Scotland’s only gender clinic, resulted in the Greens announcing they would have a vote on the future of the power-sharing deal.

What brought things to a head?

Mr. Yousaf decided to pull the plug on the agreement, arguing it had “served its purpose,” prompting a major fallout with his former allies, who vowed to back a no-confidence motion in his leadership proposed by Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross.

So how do the numbers stack up?

Tight, to say the least.

After a majority loss to his government, Mr. Yousaf’s future is contingent upon a solitary vote from a former adversary in the SNP leadership.

In the Scottish parliament, the SNP has 63 seats out of 129, two short of an outright majority.

The Greens voting in favour of the no-confidence motion would mean 64 MSPs do not back the first minister.

Alison Johnstone, serving as the presiding officer and resembling the Commons speaker, usually refrains from voting, but in the event of a deadlock, she would vote to uphold the existing order and thus back the first minister.

That leaves Ash Regan, the one-time SNP leadership rival to Mr. Yousaf, who defected to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party last October.

She has written to the first minister, setting out demands in exchange for her support.

At what time is the voting scheduled?

The anticipated no-confidence vote against Mr. Yousaf is scheduled for the upcoming week. Parliamentary officials are deciding on the exact timing and will determine it during their scheduled meeting on Tuesday.

What happens if Mr. Yousaf loses?

His position remains unchanged, despite the lack of significant calls for his resignation. In the midst of the excitement, it is believed that he will be required to resign. His position may become untenable if he doesn’t manage to gain the trust of the majority of MSPs.

The first minister’s resignation would not lead to an automatic Holyrood election. Instead, there would be a 28-day grace period for MSPs to select a replacement.

Mr. Yousaf’s resignation could lead the SNP to attempt installing a new leader. If they have sufficient support, the SNP could install a new leader in the post.

Is that all?

No. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar says he will separately lay down a motion of no confidence in the Scottish government.

This carries more far-reaching implications. It may compel ministers to resign and raise the prospect of an election. However, it is unlikely to succeed.

Mr. Alba has already ruled out its pivotal support, accusing Mr. Sarwar of “grandstanding.”